Highway Reliability Management Model Based on Depth Recursion for Transportation Demand

Abstract

An effective estimation method for the highway reliability management according to the Zhukov usage model based on the recursive test is put forward. This method makes use of the important sampling technique to ensure that under the conditions of the unbiased reliability estimation, the depth recursion is used to measure the difference between the operation profile and the distribution of the zero variance sampling, to correct the test profile by adjusting the transition probability between all the states through the heuristic iterative process. It has proved theoretically that the reliability of the estimation using the modified test profile test is unbiased estimate with the variance of 0. Finally, the heuristic iterative algorithm for the generation of the optimal test profile of the highway reliability estimation is given. The simulation results show that the method put forward in this paper can significantly reduce the variance of the estimate compared with the Newton algorithm, and can increase the speed of the recursive test while improving the estimation accuracy at the same time. The research done in this paper can effectively meet the requirements of the transportation industry in the tertiary industry.